EV Market Analysis: Jakarta & Bodetabek (2022-2025)

1. Executive Summary

The Electric Vehicle (EV) market in Jakarta and the surrounding Bodetabek region (Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi) is experiencing significant growth, driven by government incentives, increasing consumer awareness, and the entry of competitive new models. This analysis covers the period from 2022 to early 2025, examining Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) across various price segments and categories.

Overall national BEV sales surged from ~10,000 units in 2022 to over 43,000 units in 2024, indicating explosive growth. Market forecasts suggest a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the Indonesian EV market of approximately 21-25% for 2025-2028, translating to a projected 3-year market value growth of 77-98%.

Key findings include:

• Sunrise Categories (High Growth Potential >50% in 3 years):

  • Mid-Range BEVs (IDR 200-300 million): Strongest growth potential (>77%), driven by affordability, government support, and new models from brands like Wuling and BYD.

  • Premium Chinese BEVs (IDR 300-500 million): High growth potential (>77%), benefiting from competitive pricing, advanced features, and increasing brand acceptance (BYD, Chery).

  • HEVs from Established Japanese Brands: Solid growth potential (>50%), appealing as a transitional technology with strong brand trust (Toyota, Suzuki).

• Sunset Categories (Depreciating Value): High-end luxury BEVs (>IDR 800M), early-generation BEVs with limited range, and potentially PHEVs face depreciation pressure due to rapid technological advancements, high costs, and shifting incentives.

• Top Brands: Wuling, BYD, Hyundai, Chery (BEV); Toyota, Suzuki (HEV).

• Key Drivers: Government incentives (VAT reduction, import duty exemption, luxury tax waiver, Jakarta-specific tax/traffic exemptions), rising fuel prices, environmental awareness.

• Key Barriers: High upfront cost, limited charging infrastructure outside major cities, range anxiety, battery life concerns, nascent used EV market.

This report recommends focusing investment and product development on the identified sunrise categories, particularly mid-range BEVs, while leveraging government incentives and addressing consumer concerns regarding charging and battery life.

2. Market Overview

2.1 Market Size and Growth Trends

The Indonesian EV market has experienced remarkable growth over the past three years, with particular concentration in Jakarta and the Bodetabek region, which represents the country's economic and population center.

National BEV Sales Growth:

• 2022: 10,327 units (1% of total car market)

• 2023: 17,051 units (65.2% increase from 2022)

• 2024: 43,168 units (153% increase from 2023)

• Early 2025 (January): 2,355 units (3.3% of total car market, 690% YoY increase)

HEV Production (February 2025):

• Toyota: 7,910 units

• Suzuki: 3,818 units

BEV Production (February 2025):

• Wuling: 1,213 units

• Chery: 1,129 units

While specific data for Jakarta and Bodetabek is limited, these areas represent the primary market for EVs in Indonesia, with the PwC report indicating that 85% of EV owners are in large cities. The government has set an ambitious target of 2 million electric cars and 12 million electric two-wheelers by 2030, requiring sustained high growth rates.

2.2 Government Policies and Incentives

The Indonesian government has implemented several policies to accelerate EV adoption, with particular focus on Jakarta and Bodetabek:

National Incentives:

• VAT Reduction: 11% to 1% for EVs with ≥ 40% local content (TKDN)

• Zero Import Duty: For CBU/CKD EVs if manufacturer commits to local production by 2026

• Luxury Goods Sales Tax (PPnBM): Fully covered by government (100%) for imported EVs (Jan-Dec 2024)

Jakarta-Specific Incentives:

• Exemption from odd-even plate number traffic restriction (Governor Regulation No. 88 of 2019)

• Exemption from motor vehicle tax (PKB) and Motor Vehicle Title Transfer Fee (BBNKB) (Governor Regulation No. 38 of 2023)

These policies have significantly improved the value proposition for EVs, particularly in the congested Jakarta metropolitan area where traffic restrictions are a major consideration for vehicle owners.

2.3 Consumer Insights

According to the PwC report, Indonesian EV consumers can be segmented into three groups:

• EV owners: 7% (primarily urban, 85% in large cities, 60% female, avg. 42 years old)

• EV prospects: 78% (slightly younger, 61% in cities, avg. 40 years old)

• EV skeptics: 15% (avg. 41 years old, 55% male, 37% in suburbs)

Key Consumer Behaviors and Expectations:

• Charging behavior: 35% charge daily, 33% charge 2-3 times per week

• Range expectations: Indonesian consumers expect 360km range (lower than regional average)

• Charging time expectations: 32.3 minutes average acceptable time

• Main barriers: charging duration, limited range, uncertainty about battery lifetime

The used EV market remains nascent, with only 20% of current EV owners expressing interest in purchasing a used EV, indicating potential challenges for resale value in the short term.

3. Market Segmentation

3.1 HEV vs BEV Market Comparison

HEV Market Characteristics:

• Dominated by established Japanese manufacturers (Toyota, Suzuki)

• More mature technology with longer market presence

• Lower price premium compared to ICE vehicles

• No charging infrastructure requirements

• Strong dealer and service networks

BEV Market Characteristics:

• Led by Chinese manufacturers (Wuling, BYD) with Korean brands (Hyundai) in premium segments

• Newer technology with rapid innovation

• Higher price premium over comparable ICE vehicles

• Dependent on charging infrastructure

• Developing dealer and service networks

• Stronger government incentives

3.2 Price Range Segments

The Indonesian automotive market can be segmented into four price ranges, each showing distinct trends:

Entry-Level (Below IDR 200 million)

• Market Share Trend: Declining (43.73% in 2017 → 40.82% in 2018 → 38.86% in 2019)

• Limited BEV options in this segment

• Traditional ICE vehicles: Daihatsu Ayla - US $9,825 (~IDR 157 million)

Mid-Range (IDR 200-300 million)

• Market Share Trend: Growing consistently (11.32% in 2017 → 13.97% in 2018 → 17.35% in 2019)

• BEV Examples: Wuling Air EV - US $18,125 (~IDR 290 million)

• Fastest growing segment in general automotive market

Premium (IDR 300-500 million)

• BEV Examples: Mid-class EV cars: IDR 500-600 million (affordable by less than 0.1% of population)

• Significant price barrier for mass adoption

Luxury (Above IDR 500 million)

• Market Share Trend: Growing (7.78% in 2017 → 7.78% in 2018 → 8.02% in 2019)

• BEV Examples: Hyundai Kona EV - US $51,000 (~IDR 816 million)

• Significant price premium over comparable ICE vehicles (Honda HR-V - US $26,500 (~IDR 424 million))

4. Sunrise and Sunset Categories

4.1 Sunrise Categories (Appreciating in Value)

Mid-Range BEVs (IDR 200-300 million)

• Growth Indicators: Consistent market share growth in this price segment, strong sales for models like Wuling Air EV

• Value Appreciation Factors: Government incentives, increasing consumer interest, competitive Chinese manufacturers

• Key Players: Wuling, BYD

• Outlook: Strong potential for continued appreciation as more models enter this segment

Premium Chinese BEVs (IDR 300-500 million)

• Growth Indicators: Increasing BYD and Chery sales, gaining market share with competitive pricing

• Value Appreciation Factors: Government incentives, better value proposition than international brands

• Key Players: BYD, Chery

• Outlook: Positive growth trajectory as Chinese brands improve quality while maintaining competitive pricing

HEVs from Established Japanese Brands

• Growth Indicators: Strong production numbers from Toyota and Suzuki

• Value Appreciation Factors: Brand loyalty, established service networks, lower price premium, no charging anxiety

• Key Players: Toyota, Suzuki

• Outlook: Steady appreciation as transitional technology between ICE and full electric

4.2 Sunset Categories (Depreciating in Value)

High-End Luxury BEVs (Above IDR 800 million)

• Decline Indicators: Limited market accessibility, significant price premium

• Value Depreciation Factors: Rapid technology advancement, limited charging infrastructure, competition from affordable options

• Key Players: Hyundai (Kona EV)

• Outlook: Likely to face value depreciation pressure as more affordable alternatives enter the market

First-Generation BEVs with Limited Range

• Decline Indicators: Consumer expectations for minimum 360km range, rapid technology improvements

• Value Depreciation Factors: Battery degradation concerns, limited charging infrastructure, newer models with better features

• Outlook: Accelerated depreciation as technology advances and newer models enter the market

PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles)

• Decline Indicators: Limited specific data, but global trends show PHEVs as transitional technology

• Value Depreciation Factors: Complex dual powertrains, less attractive incentives, perceived as compromise solution

• Outlook: Likely to face depreciation pressure as BEV technology and infrastructure improve

5. Growth Projections and High-Potential Categories

5.1 Market Growth Forecasts

Using available market forecasts and historical data, the Indonesian EV market is projected to grow at a CAGR of:

• Maximize Market Research/OpenPR: 20.96% (from 2022 onwards)

• Mordor Intelligence (Battery Market): >14.30% (2025-2030)

• Global EV Market CAGR (Intellectual Market Insights): 25.5% (2025-2034)

Calculating 3-year market segment value growth (2025-2028):

• Conservative estimate (20.96% CAGR): 77% growth over three years

• Higher estimate (25.5% CAGR): 98% growth over three years

Both calculations suggest the overall EV market value is projected to grow well above the 50% threshold over the next three years.

5.2 High-Potential Categories (>50% Value Growth in 3 Years)

Based on the projected overall market growth and the sunrise/sunset analysis, three categories are identified as having high growth potential:

Mid-Range BEVs (IDR 200-300 million)

• Projected Growth: >77% (Likely higher than average market growth)

• Rationale: Aligns with growing general automotive price band, strong government incentives, increasing model availability

Premium Chinese BEVs (IDR 300-500 million)

• Projected Growth: >77% (Likely higher than average market growth)

• Rationale: Chinese brands gaining market share with competitive pricing and advanced features, benefiting from incentives

HEVs from Established Japanese Brands

• Projected Growth: >50% (Likely closer to average market CAGR)

• Rationale: Strong production capacity, trusted brands, transitional technology appeal, no charging infrastructure dependency

6. Strategic Recommendations

6.1 For Investors

1. Prioritize Mid-Range BEV segment for highest growth potential, particularly models from Chinese manufacturers with local production plans.

2. Consider balanced portfolio approach including both BEVs and HEVs to capture different consumer segments.

3. Monitor policy developments closely, as government incentives significantly impact market dynamics.

6.2 For Manufacturers

1. Focus product development on Mid-Range BEV segment (IDR 200-300 million) to capture fastest-growing market.

2. Invest in local production to benefit from import duty exemptions and improve price competitiveness.

3. Develop strong after-sales support to address battery concerns and build consumer confidence.

6.3 For Consumers

1. Mid-Range BEVs offer best value proposition with strong appreciation potential and government incentives.

2. Chinese BEV brands provide advanced features at competitive prices with improving quality and support.

3. Japanese HEVs remain solid choice for those concerned about charging infrastructure or requiring longer range.

7. Conclusion

The EV market in Jakarta and Bodetabek presents significant growth opportunities, particularly in the Mid-Range BEV, Premium Chinese BEV, and Japanese HEV categories. With projected growth rates exceeding 50% over the next three years, these sunrise categories offer the most promising investment potential. Government policies, improving infrastructure, and increasing consumer acceptance are creating favorable conditions for continued market expansion, with Chinese manufacturers and established Japanese brands best positioned to capitalize on these trends.

The market is still in its early growth phase, with BEVs representing only 3.3% of total car sales as of early 2025. However, the explosive growth rate (153% increase in 2024) indicates a market at an inflection point. Investors and manufacturers who position themselves strategically in the identified high-growth categories stand to benefit significantly from the projected 77-98% market value growth over the next three years.